Handset pricing is seasonal. The manufacturers launch on a schedule, retailers need to clear the previous model, and the big discount events fall on the same weeks every year. Knowing the rhythm lets you time a purchase rather than take whatever price today happens to offer.
The launch calendar
- Samsung Galaxy S series — announced in late January or February, on sale a few weeks later. Foldables (Z Fold and Z Flip) follow in the summer.
- Google Pixel — the main models in late summer, with the cheaper "a" model in spring.
- Apple iPhone — September, almost without fail, with the budget "e" model earlier in the year.
- Everyone else — spread through the year, with a cluster around the big trade show in late February.
What happens to prices
The outgoing model drops at launch. When a new flagship arrives, last year's is discounted immediately and keeps sliding for a few months as stock clears. If you do not need the newest chip and camera, the four to eight weeks after a launch is the sweet spot for the previous model. Refurbished stock of the outgoing model also gets cheaper as trade-ins flood in.
The new model rarely discounts quickly. On contract, though, retailers often run launch promotions — extra data, reduced upfront — to win early sales. These can be better than the deals available three months later.
Black Friday and the January sales are the two reliable discount events. Black Friday in particular is when contract retailers are most aggressive on upfront costs. If you are buying in October or early November, waiting a few weeks is usually right.
When not to wait
If your phone is broken or the battery is failing, the money you would save by waiting is rarely worth weeks of a bad phone. And the newest model of anything is a poor buy in its first month; the deals improve, and the early software bugs get fixed. Buy last year's model now, or this year's in a few months — both beat buying this year's this week.
See what the previous generation costs right now on the phones page sorted by price.